Residential trade employment turned negative this spring, the first sign that two years of absorbing pain through incentives is starting to show up in the one place that leads recessions: housing headcount.
Equities are calm, credit is tight, and the soft-landing narrative holds. But the bond market moved today in a way that deserves more attention than it's getting.
We’re entering a moment that feels a lot like 1999 or 2007. Recession calls are en vogue. Talk of an AI bubble is spreading, even from tech leaders. Market valuations have run far past what's typical relative to GDP. Tariffs may have a long term average of
The past two years have seen everyone rushing to add "AI" to their product. But here’s the thing: no matter how fancy your LLM demo looks, you still have to eat your engineering vegetables. User research, observability, and institutional navigation are three of the most nutritious. Skip
I wanted to write a short response to What Could Have Been, a well written if melancholy piece on the wave of AI disinvestment that's happening right now. But, this story is as old as time. A bubble's gonna bubble. We learned the hard way that
So, we might be on the cusp of an interesting August in the financial world. Four very different yellow flags are flashing: * Alf Peccatiello says the Treasury is about to refill its cash account in a way that could drain hundreds of billions from bank reserves. The plumbing of the
You won’t find this chart in the headlines, but it might be the most important signal in last week’s employment report. Construction and manufacturing payrolls just turned negative year-over-year. That may sound niche, but historically, it’s the part of the economy that leads job losses into recessions.
Why custom, declarative software will eat the world. Not a chain of non-deterministic agent bots. So I'm doing the LinkedIn thing and seeing way too much of the word "agentic" or "AI agent", while watching mostly hype with few real implementations that wow me.
We don’t do stock picks. We don’t chase clicks. We don’t pretend to know what can’t be known. We ask better questions. We search for structure in chaos. We follow forces, not forecasts. We try to understand the system, better and better, every day. This is
I've never liked financial news. It always feels like a shallow story glued onto yesterday’s chart. Markets move for a thousand reasons. Economic, geopolitical, behavioral, structural. But most coverage reduces it to: “Here’s the narrative we’ve decided fits.” We can do better. I’ve spent