markets
Oil at $98 and Rising Inflation Expectations Leave the Fed Nowhere to Go
Equities are calm, credit is tight, and the soft-landing narrative holds. But the bond market moved today in a way that deserves more attention than it's getting.
Palmer
The Biggest Piece of the Recession Puzzle
We’re entering a moment that feels a lot like 1999 or 2007. Recession calls are en vogue. Talk of an AI bubble is spreading, even from tech leaders. Market valuations have run far past what's typical relative to GDP. Tariffs may have a long term average of
User Research, Observability, and Institutional Navigation: The Vegetables Before AI Dessert
The past two years have seen everyone rushing to add "AI" to their product. But here’s the thing: no matter how fancy your LLM demo looks, you still have to eat your engineering vegetables. User research, observability, and institutional navigation are three of the most nutritious. Skip
... and What Could Be
I wanted to write a short response to What Could Have Been, a well written if melancholy piece on the wave of AI disinvestment that's happening right now. But, this story is as old as time. A bubble's gonna bubble. We learned the hard way that
So Many Signals. So Little Rigorous Analysis
So, we might be on the cusp of an interesting August in the financial world. Four very different yellow flags are flashing: * Alf Peccatiello says the Treasury is about to refill its cash account in a way that could drain hundreds of billions from bank reserves. The plumbing of the
Cyclical Job Losses Begin: Why It Matters More Than the Headline Jobs Number
You won’t find this chart in the headlines, but it might be the most important signal in last week’s employment report. Construction and manufacturing payrolls just turned negative year-over-year. That may sound niche, but historically, it’s the part of the economy that leads job losses into recessions.
Stop with the Agents!
Why custom, declarative software will eat the world. Not a chain of non-deterministic agent bots. So I'm doing the LinkedIn thing and seeing way too much of the word "agentic" or "AI agent", while watching mostly hype with few real implementations that wow me.
What Makes Us Alethia
We don’t do stock picks. We don’t chase clicks. We don’t pretend to know what can’t be known. We ask better questions. We search for structure in chaos. We follow forces, not forecasts. We try to understand the system, better and better, every day. This is
Understanding the Market... Really?
I've never liked financial news. It always feels like a shallow story glued onto yesterday’s chart. Markets move for a thousand reasons. Economic, geopolitical, behavioral, structural. But most coverage reduces it to: “Here’s the narrative we’ve decided fits.” We can do better. I’ve spent